- Bitcoin trades above $98,131 support, with resistance at $116,900, signaling moderate overvaluation and steady accumulation trends.
- Institutional purchases by BlackRock and Fidelity highlight rising interest, with long-term holders adding 339,000 BTC since April.
- LTH SOPR shows reduced profit-taking despite rising prices, reflecting strong conviction and restrained selling above $100,000.
Bitcoin is trading near $103,789, holding firmly above the key support at $98,131, based on MVRV deviation bands. This positioning underscores a consistent pattern of long-term accumulation, with analysts identifying $116,900 as a significant resistance level.
Ali Martinez reported the critical price thresholds, noting, “Key support for Bitcoin sits at $98,131, while major resistance could be found at $116,900.” This insight draws from MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, a tool that measures the market price’s divergence from Bitcoin’s realized price through standard deviations. The current market price positions itself $13,112 below the +1.0σ red band while maintaining a $24,428 buffer above the mean at $79,361.
Bridging the observed metrics, the yellow band at +0.5σ aligns closely with the existing support level, reflecting a strategic demand zone. Meanwhile, the red band signifies historically significant market tops, placing Bitcoin within moderate overvaluation territory as of May 15. The realized price, marked at $45,504 by the purple line, reiterates long-term investor trends tied to cost basis stability.
Institutional Buyers Push Bitcoin Higher
Institutional investors have amplified Bitcoin’s resilience, uncovering sizeable purchases that follow rising market valuations. BlackRock is reported to have acquired 1,250 BTC, a $129.7 million purchase, and Fidelity purchased 654.68 BTC worth $66.9 million.
These purchases underscore a tactical tilt towards Bitcoin’s projected long-term appreciation. Assets are predominantly held through regulated trust structures, ensuring compliance and stability. Meanwhile, Basel Medical Group has announced plans for a $1 billion Bitcoin acquisition, targeting over-the-counter methods or direct custody solutions. This institutional confidence is further buoyed by macroeconomic narratives advocating broader Bitcoin adoption.
Adding context, JPMorgan analysts predict Bitcoin will “outpace gold in H2,” citing factors such as corporate treasury allocations and U.S. state-level initiatives. This sentiment aligns with historical trends, where institutional accumulation phases frequently precede exponential price growth.
Long-Term Holders Maintain Conviction
The activity of Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTH) paints a picture of steady market confidence. Since April 4, LTHs have accumulated an additional 339,000 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 14.37 million BTC. This accumulation follows a period of distribution from late 2023 through early 2024, during which approximately 1.3 million BTC exited LTH wallets.
Recent 30-day net position changes indicate green bars, a signal of robust accumulation activity. As distribution peaked in Q4 2023, Bitcoin surpassed $50,000, marking a transition to conviction-led buying. These accumulation patterns historically coincide with extended bullish cycles.
SOPR Levels Indicate Low Profit-Taking
Further supporting Bitcoin’s outlook, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) highlights a decline in profit-taking among long-term holders. Sudelytic observed that the LTH SOPR is trending downward, with fewer holders realizing gains despite higher prices.
Since September 2023, SOPR has been consistently higher than 1.0 at all points, reflecting that most sales remain profitable. SOPR readings at present between 1.5 and 2.2 are significantly lower than the all-time highs of 5.0 in early 2024. Such tepid activity reflects restrained selling pressures even as Bitcoin trades well above $100,000.
