- BTC reserves dropped 120K since April, signaling supply tightening as prices jumped 28.6% to $ 102.9 K.
- Bull-Bear Indicator flips bullish, confirming Bitcoin’s breakout past $100K as cycle momentum aligns long-term.
- Negative derivatives volume contrasts with bullish spot demand, highlighting exhaustion of sell pressure amid exchange outflows.
BTC outflows from centralized exchanges are accelerating, as on-chain metrics confirm a historic tightening of supply during the latest rally. Bitcoin reserves across all major exchanges fell by roughly 120,000 BTC from April 16 to May 8, coinciding with a 28.6% jump in price to $102,900.
Bitcoin Exchange Balances Hit Multi-Year Lows
Bitcoin has continued its trend of leaving centralized exchanges at a rapid pace. In a post by CryptoGoos, the analytics reveal that BTC reserves dropped from 2.57 million to 2.45 million over three weeks, marking the largest sustained outflow since early 2021.
The sharpest drawdown was between April 20 and April 24, when balances fell by 40,000 BTC. That time also saw Bitcoin increase from $85,000 to $95,000, which shows intensified accumulation by high-conviction holders or institutions moving money to cold storage.
Between May 5 and May 8, outflows intensified again, with reserves falling by 30,000 BTC while the spot price surged nearly 6% to $102,900. These combined signals suggest an increasingly supply-constrained market entering a potential breakout phase.
Indicator Flips Bullish as Long-Term Cycle Aligns
The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has confirmed a transition into a renewed bull phase. This momentum shift coincides with Bitcoin’s price breaching the six-figure threshold for the first time in 2025.
The indicator categorizes historical sentiment into six zones, and for the first time since late 2021, the signal has turned green, labeled “Flipped Bullish.” It spans a multi-cycle view from 2013 onward, using price action and behavioral metrics across logarithmic time scales.
Two accompanying moving averages support this phase shift: the 365-day trendline has curved upward, while the 30-day average has outpaced short-term corrections. Neither metric shows signs of overextension, reinforcing the indicator’s bullish signal as sustainable rather than speculative.
Derivatives Sentiment Turns Bearish Despite Rally
Simultaneously, other market indicators suggest a different trend forming among short-term traders. Bitcoinsensus noted that since Bitcoin price crossed the $100,000 mark, net taker volume on perpetual futures has remained decisively negative.
This metric tracks aggressive selling versus buying activity on derivatives platforms. Between May 7 and May 12, the cumulative net taker volume dropped to nearly $800 million, even as BTC maintained a price floor above $96,000, revealing a disconnect between sentiment and spot demand.
On May 14, however, a modest recovery in taker volume pushed values back above $1.6 billion cumulatively. This renewed buy-side pressure aligns with the continued drawdown in exchange reserves, suggesting the sell-side may be exhausted despite bearish futures flows.
