Key Insights
- XRP long-term holder sentiment has shifted toward the anxiety phase as major metrics show weakening confidence during ongoing market stress.
- Analysts highlight the risk of a decline under two dollars as XRP trades below major moving averages and struggles to defend key support.
- Retail outflows and lower futures interest indicate cooling trader appetite, reinforcing concerns of broader selling pressure across the market.
XRP shows signs of renewed pressure as long-term sentiment indicators signal a clear shift toward caution. Besides heightened volatility, investors now react to broader market weakness that follows several weeks of declining confidence across major digital assets. Moreover, the latest price behavior reflects stress after a recent technical breakdown that pushed XRP below important averages.
Glassnode data shows that the XRP long-term holder NUPL reading has moved from denial to anxiety. This shift follows the end of the euphoria stage in mid-2025, when whales reduced exposure. Additionally, Santiment reports that wallets holding fewer than one hundred XRP continue to sell, which has lowered supply in profit to its weakest point since late last year.
Analysts Outline Price Targets
Analysts monitor the two dollar and fifteen cent support area as a key threshold. Ali Martinez warns that losing this level could open a path toward one dollar and ninety one cents and possibly one dollar and seventy-three cents. Furthermore, analyst CasiTrades sees the macro structure pointing toward two dollars and three cents, with a risk of a deeper move toward the one dollar and sixty-five cent Fibonacci level.
XRP trades near two dollars and fourteen cents after a moderate daily decline. Significantly, the token now sits below the fifty, one hundred, and two hundred day moving averages. The recent death cross formation triggered a sharp pullback of fifteen percent. Additionally, the relative strength index near thirty-eight reflects weakening momentum as traders reassess exposure.
Derivatives Activity Cools
Derivatives activity remains mixed after futures open interest dropped more than one percent in the last day. Hence, the lower interest shows reduced participation as traders avoid large positions during uncertain market conditions. However, shorter time frame data from major exchanges shows slight increases, suggesting some traders seek opportunities around price swings.
Traders now watch incoming economic reports and corporate earnings for signals on risk appetite. Moreover, the market expects guidance from FOMC minutes and labor data, which could influence liquidity conditions. If XRP holds the current support area this week, analysts believe a rebound toward the two-dollar and forty-cent to two-dollar and seventy-cent range remains possible.
