- Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score neutralizes, reflecting market recalibration after cycles of overvaluation and undervaluation from 2016 to 2025.
- Retail interest in Ethereum drops despite price recovery to $2,500, indicating long-term holders and institutions drive current trends.
- Stochastic RSI shows ETH bullish momentum below overbought levels, with price action signaling a potential breakout near $2,800.
Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score has returned to neutral territory, indicating a market in reset mode after cycles of overvaluation and undervaluation. With ETH consolidating near $1,800, analysts point to historical valuation patterns, waning retail interest, and technical indicators to gauge what may come next.
Z-Score Stabilization Suggests Market Recalibration
The ETH MVRV Z-Score, a key valuation metric, shows Ethereum returning to neutral levels following years of sharp fluctuations. According to a post by Kong Trading, the indicator, which compares market value to realized value, mirrors Ethereum’s major bull and bear cycles between 2016 and 2025. In early 2018, late 2021, and mid-2022, the Z-Score spiked into the red zone, each time corresponding with ETH price peaks above $4,000.
Periods of undervaluation are just as pronounced. The score entered the green zone in late 2018, March 2020, and mid-2022 when ETH fell below $150, $110, and $1,000, respectively. These events followed sharp macro corrections and preceded major rallies. As of February 2025, the Z-Score holds in a neutral band, with ETH priced around $1,800, suggesting a phase of market cooling and potential for accumulation.
Retail Interest Slumps Despite Resilient Price Action
Simultaneously, other market indicators suggest a different trend. Ethereum interest among retail participants has fallen to near-historic lows, even as prices hover around $2,500. A chart measuring engagement from May 2020 to November 2023 shows peak interest in early 2021, followed by a steady decline to levels between 20 and 25.
This divergence between rising prices and declining attention signals a shift in investor composition. Retail participation diminished during 2022’s corrections and has not rebounded despite price recovery and network activity. Ethereum’s current stability suggests institutional or long-term holders are driving recent performance.
Momentum Indicators Show Room for Further Upside
An analysis by Titan of Crypto shows Ethereum’s weekly Stochastic RSI remains below extreme overbought levels. Previous tops in February and November 2024 aligned with RSI peaks and local highs at $3,800 and $4,000, while bottoms in April 2024 and March 2025 followed deeply oversold signals. In May 2025, ETH approached $2,800 with the oscillator rising, but not topping, indicating bullish momentum remains intact.
Price and oscillator alignment reflect Ethereum’s ongoing adherence to cyclical behavior. With valuation normalizing, interest subdued, and technicals signaling potential upside, ETH appears poised for a directional breakout in the weeks ahead.
