- Ethena’s Elliott Wave pattern signals a continuing Wave C phase following the invalidation of the prior bullish setup.
- Key support levels are identified near $0.45–$0.47 and $0.32–$0.35, aligning with Fibonacci retracement zones.
- Ethena’s $4B market cap and strong TVL ratio point to resilient fundamentals amid ongoing short-term corrections.
Ethena’s market momentum has shifted into a corrective phase, with technical indicators suggesting one more downward leg before a possible recovery begins. The asset remains in focus as traders monitor key support zones for structural confirmation.
Market Structure Shifts After Bullish Setup Fails
The latest 4-hour chart shared by Nology shows Ethena ($ENA) transitioning from a previously anticipated bullish impulse to a corrective structure. The analyst acknowledged that the earlier forecast “didn’t come to fruition,” revising the count to favor one more leg lower to complete Wave C. This shift reflects a disciplined adherence to technical structure rather than directional bias.
According to the updated Elliott Wave interpretation, the chart now forms a textbook A–B–C correction after a rally that topped near $0.80. Wave A appears completed, Wave B has formed a mild recovery, and Wave C is unfolding. The overlapping price action and soft momentum validate the view that the market remains corrective rather than impulsive.
Two potential demand zones emerge as critical. The first lies between $0.45 and $0.47, aligning with structural support and the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement. The second, deeper zone around $0.32–$0.35, marks a measured projection for a complete Wave C extension. Price reactions in these regions may determine whether the current correction ends shallow or extends into a broader consolidation phase.
Technical Indicators Reinforce Corrective Bias
The moving averages currently act as short-term resistance. The 50-period and 100-period EMAs cluster around $0.56, maintaining downward pressure on intraday rallies. Price remains below both averages, reinforcing the notion that any upward movement should be viewed as counter-trend until confirmation of strength appears.
At the same time, the price action has shown temporary stability near the $0.55 mark. ENA increased by 3.89% on the day and closed at $0.5599 with a market capitalization of 4 billion and a fully diluted market value of approximately 8.39 billion. Nevertheless, trading volume in 24 hours has fallen by more than 20%, which signals less momentum in speculations during consolidation.
Nology describes this phase as “a trade, not a hold,” signaling a tactical approach with defined risk parameters. The suggestion that the C wave may “subdivide further” implies openness to a prolonged correction, potentially evolving into a double zigzag or complex flat before stabilization.
Broader Metrics Reflect Underlying Market Stability
Despite short-term corrections, Ethena maintains strong fundamentals. The protocol’s total value locked (TVL) stands at $14.79 billion, giving a market cap-to-TVL ratio of 0.27, which suggests a balanced valuation relative to locked liquidity. Circulating supply remains at 7.15 billion ENA, nearly half of the total issuance, providing a steady base for liquidity and staking.
Ethena’s synthetic dollar framework continues to attract institutional and retail attention for its stable, non-bank-dependent model. The growing holder base—now at nearly 79,000 addresses—indicates expanding participation despite market fluctuations. Analysts and commentators, such as Discover Crypto, point to the project’s high-yield staking mechanisms as a driver of sustained interest.
Overall, Ethena’s structure remains corrective but contained within key technical boundaries. The market’s reaction within the upcoming demand zones will shape near-term direction. A recovery above $0.60 supported by rising volume could confirm a structural reversal, while failure to defend lower supports may extend the correction toward the $0.32 area. Nology’s revised outlook emphasizes measured participation and structural awareness, aligning with a veteran trader’s approach to evolving market conditions.
