- Long-term Bitcoin holders now control over 14M BTC, signaling deep conviction and a solid foundation amid reduced market churn.
- BlackRock’s 2,680 BTC purchase via Coinbase Prime in two hours shows aggressive institutional trust in ETF-driven Bitcoin exposure.
- The 2022–2025 cycle for Bitcoin lags behind previous bull cycles in growth rate but suggests a more mature, less speculative investor base.
Despite recent price declines, long-term holders of Bitcoin have consolidated their grip on market supply, enhancing a bullish structural underpinning. In a Coinvo report, the chart entitled “Bitcoin: Long/Short-Term Holder Threshold” indicates that long-term supply has crossed 14 million BTC, while short-term supply dipped under 3 million BTC—its lowest since 2011.
From 2010 to 2025, trends reveal that speculative short-term supply spikes have historically aligned with major tops in 2014, 2017, and 2021. However, deep drawdowns have consistently reset the market, enabling long-term holders to steadily accumulate Bitcoin. Their growing share during corrections indicates strong conviction and reduced market volatility driven by transient sentiment.
The current structure, marked by a historically high long-term holding supply, suggests a maturing Bitcoin market. As short-term speculative activity wanes, conviction-driven holding continues to anchor price stability, even as volatility surfaces around key psychological levels.
BlackRock ETF Seizes Opportunity with Aggressive BTC Accumulation
In a separate development underscoring institutional confidence, BlackRock purchased 2,680 BTC worth approximately $282.9 million during a two-hour dip. According to the report, these transactions originated from Coinbase Prime’s Hot Wallet and were funneled directly into BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF custody accounts in nine rapid transfers.
Six of these transfers moved 300 BTC each, with individual values ranging from $31.44 million to $31.68 million. Additional batches included 209 BTC ($20.96 million), 43.814 BTC ($4.96 million), and a smaller 37 BTC transfer worth $3.88 million. The destination wallet remained consistent, confirming that all inflows were aimed at strengthening BlackRock’s ETF reserves.
According to the report, this activity was likely pre-programmed and executed with high-frequency precision, reflecting active ETF demand rather than random allocation. These institutional inflows represent a powerful narrative shift: Bitcoin’s demand is increasingly ETF-driven, with regulated structures like IBIT serving as major conduits for capital.
Cycle Comparison Indicates Maturing but Slower Growth
Cycle performance data published by Glassnode further contextualizes Bitcoin’s market behavior. Since the 2022 cycle low, Bitcoin has grown by 656%, trailing the +1076% surge from 2015–2018 and the +1007% gain during 2018–2022. Although the 2022 cycle led early, its trajectory plateaued after November 2023.
By the beginning of 2025, previous cycles had advanced to 10x to 20x multiples, while this cycle was still only 6x to 9x. That sort of underperformance suggests trailing momentum but suggests greater structural maturity, less driven by retail speculation and more driven by long-hold capital.
Together, these developments confirm a bullish yet disciplined Bitcoin environment, with foundational strength rooted in both holder behavior and institutional flows.
