Key Insights:
- Cardano trades below its major EMAs, signaling continued pressure despite a recent bounce near key support levels.
- Spot flows showed a notable $3.08 million inflow, hinting at early signs of reduced selling pressure.
- Leverage risk has declined as open interest falls and liquidations remain balanced, supporting a more stable short-term environment.
Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.376 on Friday, showing a modest rebound after testing lows earlier in December. The price action reflected a cautious recovery within a broader corrective phase that began in October. Buyers stepped in near the $0.326 level, a zone historically known for attracting dip demand.
Despite the rebound, ADA remains locked below its major daily exponential moving averages (EMAs), including the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day indicators. These trend levels continue to slope downward, reinforcing the persistent bearish structure. Resistance is now seen near $0.381 and $0.438, corresponding to the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, respectively.
Lower Bollinger Band Offers Support for Now
The bounce developed near the lower Bollinger Band around $0.326. This level has previously served as a demand zone. However, the defense alone is insufficient to reverse the trend. ADA must reclaim its key EMAs to signal a shift from stabilization to recovery.
Data from Coinglass indicated a net inflow of $3.08 million in ADA spot markets on December 29. This was the first meaningful inflow seen after several weeks of persistent outflows. While a single inflow is not definitive, it suggests that sellers are showing reduced urgency, allowing spot buyers to absorb supply.
Derivatives Show Decline in Leverage
Open interest in ADA derivatives fell by 1.64% to approximately $712 million, while trading volumes rose more than 18%. This divergence indicates a cleanup in leveraged positions rather than a new directional push. Liquidations remained balanced, and the long-to-short ratio hovered near neutral, pointing to a decline in leverage-driven volatility.
On lower timeframes, such as the 30-minute chart, ADA broke above a short-term Supertrend near $0.372 and maintained a position above an ascending trendline. The relative strength index (RSI) recovered into the mid-50s, showing improving momentum without entering overheated conditions.
Resistance Levels Define Next Moves
ADA recently tested resistance near $0.385, which now serves as the immediate barrier. A move above that could pave the way toward $0.400. However, sustained gains will likely depend on stronger volume and further spot demand.
