Key Insights:
- Large wallets dumped 100 million ADA (~$65 m) in 72 hours, intensifying short-term downward pressure on Cardano’s price.
- DeFi on Cardano shows TVL sliding from $360 m to $280 m and exchange volume falling to ~$85 m this month.
- ETF anticipation and network upgrades like Hydra may underpin a recovery, despite current weakness.
Heavy selling by prominent holders of the Cardano (ADA) token has introduced fresh downward momentum across the ecosystem. According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, whales offloaded around 100 million ADA—worth approximately $65 million—within a 72-hour span. The move has triggered short-term turbulence as smaller market participants weigh the direction ahead.
Trading participation appears to be waning alongside the whale activity. ADA’s 24-hour spot volume has dropped roughly 6.3 % to about $1.39 billion, signaling less robust engagement. In the derivatives market, though futures volume jumped ~34.8 % to about $2.11 billion, open interest dipped slightly by 0.21 % to $705.83 million—suggesting traders are rotating positions rather than committing decisively.
On the network side, the DeFi ecosystem has cooled: total value locked (TVL) fell from ~$360 million in early October to ~$280 million now, while monthly decentralized exchange volume slid from ~$125 million in July to ~$85 million this month, and the stablecoin market cap dropped to ~$38.5 million.
Price and Technical Picture Under Pressure
ADA traded around $0.6404 at press time, down 0.7 % over the previous day. Over the past week the token gained roughly 1.7 %, yet it remains down nearly 20 % over the last month. The 7-day trading range spans approximately $0.6303 to $0.6905. Technical indicators lean bearish: the relative strength index (RSI) hovers around 40, reflecting weak momentum. Most moving averages—from the 10-day EMA through the 200-day SMA—signal a sell bias as the token remains below key trend levels.
Bollinger Bands have tightened, showing reduced volatility, and the MACD gives a weak buy cue—suggesting any bounce may require a volume uptick. Immediate support lies near $0.578 while resistance is in the $0.665 to $0.752 zone. A failure to hold the $0.58 support could result in a deeper slide, while a sustained break above $0.665 might pave the way toward $0.75.
Potential Catalysts for Change
Despite current softness, several developments could shift sentiment. Institutional interest is building ahead of a potential spot ADA ETF filing by Grayscale Investments and regulatory decisions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, upgrades within the Cardano ecosystem, such as the Ouroboros Leios protocol and the layer-2 Hydra scaling solution, aim to enhance scalability and reduce costs. The upcoming Cardano Summit 2025 in November could also spotlight governance, enterprise adoption, and DeFi growth—factors that may influence market direction.
The convergence of whale behavior, declining on-chain activity, and a flat trading range points to a period of consolidation for ADA. Yet the longer-term outlook remains tethered to institutional flows and network upgrades.
