- Since Bitcoin’s first inception in 2009, its block reward has been drastically cut from 50 BTC to 3.125 BTC to reflect its pre-determined supply restrictions.
- By now, more than 93% of the total 21 million BTC supply has already been mined, and the rate of issuance has been significantly reduced following every halving.
- As it stands, Bitcoin is trading near $103, 990 and the existence of firm support and resistance points suggests one is likely to observe market consolidation.
Bitcoin experienced the third halving whereby the miner block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC On 11th May 2020. Five years ago, this significant event was a turning point for the digital asset’s economic model.
Such a drop in the block reward not only slowed down the production rate of Bitcoin but also sharpened the deflationary nature of the given cryptocurrency. As the fourth halving came to an end in April 2024 and a fifth one is set to take place in April 2028, when rewards will drop to 3.125 BTC, traders and analysts are closely watching the effect of these events on both short term and long-term
Decoding the Bitcoin Reward and Supply Chart
The visual representation of Bitcoin’s mining reward and supply trajectory illustrates two key trends: the steadily declining block rewards and the asymptotic supply curve approaching the 21 million BTC limit. Through the block reward, between the years 2009 to 2020, the reward went down from 50 BTC to 6.25 BTC which was the trajectory after the 2024 halving which is currently at 3.125 BTC. The chart’s red line is an example of the halvings meaning every four years we see precipitous declines and thus reveals a predictable way in which new coins hit the roads.
The green line shows a trend on how total supply of BTC has changed over years. Around 2020, the total supply of BTC mined was about 18.5 million. By 2025, the total supply is almost at 19.6 million, and all that Bitcoin ever existed is already in the hands of users, far outnumbering the amount that is yet to be mined.
Visual representation supports gradual decrease in new coin minting, strengthening bitcoin’s design perspective on scarcity. The continuous decrease of mining incentives will further flatten the new issuance curve and it will reach zero reward at some point after the year 2140.
Current Price Action and Technical Levels
As of May 11, 2025, Bitcoin was priced at $103,990 — reflecting a modest 0.5% intraday increase. Support is solid at $103,133; the highest resistance is at $104,841, which signified a restricted trading environment. Even with tightening emissions and the underlying macro issues, the asset still stands its ground.
Bitcoin Halving Spurs Scarcity and Fee Reliance
The long-term implication of Bitcoin’s halving mechanism is sustained scarcity. As block rewards decline, miner profitability becomes more reliant on transaction fees. The miners have to fall back more on the fees for the transactions with smaller block rewards.
Price spikes have never failed to occur in the short run following halving events in the past, but not always immediately. Specialists caution that with the shrinking supplies in circulation; there is a likelihood that speculative activities may be on the rise especially when the market gets ready for the next halving in 2028.
