- The MVRV 365DMA is forming a structure resembling the 2021 double-top that marked the beginning of a long bear cycle.
- Historical behavior suggests Bitcoin’s price may peak by late August, as the MVRV indicator lags real-time market activity.
- Broader narratives such as expected Fed rate changes align with potential cycle top projections from current on-chain metrics.
Bitcoin’s current trajectory suggests a critical turning point may be near, based on the MVRV 365DMA indicator. This historical tool has closely mirrored previous market tops and is now flashing similar signals.
Market Cycle Mirror: Double-Top Camel Pattern Reemerges
According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant.com, the MVRV 365DMA is forming a pattern resembling its 2021 structure. Back then, the indicator presented a double-top camel shape—a prominent peak followed by another nearly six months later. The second rise coincided with the start of the last major bear market.
@cryptoquant_com noted, “Back in 2021, the MVRV 365DMA formed a double-top camel pattern—a peak followed by another six months later — just before the bear market began. That second peak effectively marked the turning point.”
Current on-chain behavior appears to replicate this earlier formation. If this pattern holds, the current cycle may reach its top around mid-September. However, with MVRV 365DMA being a lagging metric, price action may peak even earlier — potentially by late August.
Fed Policy and Macro Sentiment Could Add to Market Timing
The timing of this on-chain signal corresponds with broader market developments. Expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut and evolving macroeconomic sentiment could converge with a potential cycle top.
Analysts believe that while Bitcoin continues its push toward $119,000, caution is necessary. Market timing must incorporate both technical and fundamental signals. The MVRV indicator’s historical performance warrants attention, especially when aligned with economic shifts that traditionally influence asset markets.
This suggests that price movements around late August through September deserve close scrutiny from market participants. Investors should avoid complacency as market structure changes often arrive ahead of traditional indicators.
Risk Strategy: A Shift Toward Caution and Flexibility
CryptoQuant advises traders to reevaluate current strategies. “Now is the time to recalibrate the market clock using on-chain signals—especially the 365DMA of the MVRV Ratio,” the tweet stated.
With rising optimism, it becomes important to maintain risk-adjusted positioning. Tightening risk management, reducing exposure at peak zones, and staying flexible in execution may serve long-term goals.
The signal does not call for immediate action but encourages preparedness. On-chain data remains an essential part of market structure analysis—especially when historical behaviors are repeating with precision.
