- Bitcoin Vector’s Risk-Off Signal hits 97 days, showing early capital outflows before major drawdowns using on-chain and price structure data.
- This represents the second-longest streak in the last three years with only 107 days recorded in November 2024 being a longer streak.
- Extended risk-off phases tighten liquidity, weaken altcoin rotations, and signal broader shifts in crypto market behavior ahead of trend reversals.
Bitcoin Risk-Off Signal has reached its second-longest streak in the last three years, now standing at 97 consecutive days. This duration trails only the 107 days recorded in November 2024.
Tracking Bitcoin’s Market Sentiment Through Risk-Off Signals
Bitcoin Vector, in collaboration with Glassnode and Swissblock, has developed a system that monitors Bitcoin’s market behavior. The Risk-Off Signal is designed to detect capital shifts away from risk assets, often preceding broad market drawdowns. According to Bitcoin Vector’s tweet, this combined metric now marks the second-longest active streak since its inception.
The metric blends on-chain data from Glassnode with Swissblock’s price structure models. It identifies phases where market participants retreat to safety. A sustained Risk-Off environment often leads to contracting liquidity, fading altcoin rotations, and faster downside price action. This metric is not reactionary. It aims to provide early insight before heavy sell-offs begin.
Bitcoin Vector emphasized the importance of identifying these phases, noting that following this rule since 2023 could have yielded strong returns. The current streak suggests a prolonged cautious stance among market participants, with Bitcoin maintaining risk-averse signals for over three months.
Why Risk-Off Phases Matter to Market Behavior
When Bitcoin is facing a Risk-Off period, it spreads to the rest of the crypto market. In many cases, liquidity can retreat due to traders cutting down on their exposure. Altcoins that are usually built on the power of Bitcoin perform disproportionately and remain stagnant. These changes do not happen in theory only, but impact trades and market positioning within the entire segment.
Bitcoin Vector’s tool has become a key reference for traders looking to anticipate market turns. With 97 days of continuous Risk-Off signal, this period is closely monitored. Only one other period surpassed it: the 107 days in late 2024, which preceded notable market correction phases.
This signal’s continued strength reinforces its relevance as a market behavior indicator. With Bitcoin setting the tone, capital flows across crypto remain defensive. As long as the Risk-Off signal holds, caution may dominate investor strategies.
