- Short-term Bitcoin holders have recorded sustained 20–25% losses for two weeks, marking the deepest realized loss phase of the current cycle.
- Data shows this trader cohort has reached a capitulation zone, often appearing during periods when market bottoms begin forming in ongoing cycles.
- Realized price near $113,692 indicates short-term traders remain under pressure while broader long-term trend structure continues to show upward resilience.
Bitcoin on-chain traders are now facing the deepest losses of this market cycle, entering a phase that suggests stressed conditions in the short-term cohort.
Short-Term BTC Holders Face Deep Realized Losses
CryptoQuant reported that BTC on-chain traders, defined as holders who kept their coins between one and three months, have reached their sharpest loss levels of the cycle. Analyst Darkfost shared on social media that this group has spent two weeks realizing losses between 20% and 25%.
The realized price for this category now sits near $113,692, and this places traders in a zone often associated with exhaustion. According to the post on CryptoQuant’s channel, the goal is to isolate spot-based participants who engage in short-term speculation rather than long-term conviction.
During past phases of similar behavior, this cohort often faced a point where a choice emerged between selling or holding, and this pressure sometimes marked a market low. Yet the analysis still stressed caution even though the broader trend remains oriented upward.
Capitulation Behavior Reflects a Key Market Phase
Darkfost noted that the current pattern shows capitulation behavior within this specific group. This means many traders in this window have exited positions at losses after weeks of sustained pressure. That often occurs when short-term conviction weakens and reactionary moves dominate.
These conditions have appeared before in this cycle. When a large share of the cohort finished selling, the market sometimes found a stabilizing point. That backdrop helped long-term participants re-evaluate market structure and consider whether accumulation zones were forming.
However, the analysis stressed that such zones only matter if the broader trend stays intact. The long-term path still appears constructive, but the report advises market participants to remain watchful as uncertainty persists.
Market Structure Depends on the Broader Trend
The assessment indicates that near-term stress does not automatically change the long-term outlook. While short-term on-chain traders are under pressure, the wider market still holds its bullish structure according to current data.
CryptoQuant stated that these conditions deserve close attention because patterns in this cohort have previously aligned with inflection points. Still, the article emphasized that every cycle evolves differently, making context essential.
For now, the situation suggests traders should monitor whether capitulation continues or begins to ease. The analysis notes that once forced selling slows, the environment may become more favorable for structured accumulation as long as higher-timeframe strength remains present.
