- Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum dropped to 19%, signaling a cooldown phase as historical peaks above 30% often led to sharp corrections.
- ETF inflows surged with over 8,500 BTC bought in one day, highlighting strong institutional demand amid Bitcoin’s climb toward $ 110 K.
- A breakdown in Bitcoin dominance and bearish RSI/MACD signals suggest altcoin strength is rising as capital rotation begins.
Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum has cooled to 19%, dropping from a Q1 peak of 31% as the price approaches $110,000. Historical indicators suggest that surges beyond 30% often precede major tops, pointing to potential consolidation ahead.
Momentum Data Signals Approaching Threshold
The slowdown follows a familiar cycle in Bitcoin’s price behavior. In a post by Axel Adler Jr, the analyst noted that “momentum has slowed by 38%,” adding that such cooldowns are “normal after a new all-time high.” He contextualized the data with prior cycles, such as early 2021 and late 2023, where momentum peaks of 40% aligned with local price tops and subsequent corrections.
Bitcoin’s current trajectory remains consistent with five years of cyclical trends. Each historical surge beyond 30% preceded downward price action of up to 50%, while retracements near 0% typically marked bottoms. At 19%, the momentum indicator now sits beneath its historical ceiling, suggesting Bitcoin’s ongoing climb remains technically intact, for now.
ETF Flows and Strategic Accumulation Push Institutional Demand
Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to fuel market conviction. According to Sensei, over 8,530 BTC were purchased on May 22, driving $934.8 million in net inflows. Europe’s Blockchain Group, now positioning itself as a Bitcoin treasury vehicle, announced the acquisition of 227 BTC for €21.2 million, raising its total holdings to 847 BTC. The purchase underscores a growing trend of corporate treasury diversification into digital assets.
ETF structures remain diversified across spot and futures exposures, with custody handled by regulated custodians like Coinbase Custody or Fidelity. Strategic objectives vary but emphasize long-term hedging and inflation resistance, as noted in recent fund updates. With BTC nearing six figures, such moves aim to preemptively secure upside exposure ahead of any supply-driven constraints.
Sentiment Data Highlights Overextension Risk
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index read 78 on May 23, marking “Extreme Greed” territory. This sentiment zone historically overlaps with overheated price conditions. The index, which integrates volatility, volume, social trends, and market dominance, shows sentiment skewing disproportionately positive, an environment often preceding price pullbacks.
The index needle leans far into the green, reflecting euphoric investor behavior. While not a price tracker, its psychological influence shapes short-term reactions, especially when aligned with technical warning signs like slowing momentum. The alignment of sentiment highs with momentum peaks reinforces caution among traders watching for volatility triggers.
Technical Breakdown in Bitcoin Dominance Confirms Shift
Bitcoin dominance has broken down from a rising wedge formation, a bearish signal echoed across momentum indicators. The MACD posted a bearish crossover on May 22, while the RSI broke below its rising trendline, both supporting the wedge’s downside breach. According to the chart reviewed by Sensei, these combined signals indicate weakening upward pressure and rising risk of rotation into altcoins.
Dominance levels peaked at 64.6% before turning downward, suggesting a reallocation of capital. The wedge’s formation, extending from early May to late May, illustrates a textbook reversal setup. With altcoin volumes rising, the breakdown in dominance may foreshadow an impending altseason if Bitcoin stalls near current levels.
