- Bitcoin moves through a mid-cycle reset with funding staying near neutral and leverage easing in key futures markets.
- Corporate reshuffling, including recent SpaceX wallet movements, aligns with broader shifts in liquidity behavior.
- Prior Bitcoin pullbacks lasted 75–150 days, suggesting this cycle may still be early in its reset phase.
Bitcoin trades in a steady consolidation phase as the market processes a broad reset. Funding conditions, open interest, and spot activity point to reduced leverage and healthier positioning across major venues.
Cycle Reset Develops After Sharp Decline
Bitcoin’s recent retracement aligns with the market behavior described by Milk Road, which notes that past expansions were followed by sharp resets. The latest move has lasted about 40 days, placing the asset early in its typical correction window. Previous cycles took far longer to stabilize, often stretching to more than 100 days before a durable floor emerged.
The chart structure shows a series of corrections since 2023, forming a pattern of steep drops followed by long periods of sideways trading. These phases have built the foundation for later breakouts. The most recent pullback measured about 24% from peak levels, bringing Bitcoin near its ascending trend support while keeping the long-term structure intact.
Derivatives Cooling Suggests Controlled Positioning
Funding rates remain mostly neutral across the period, with brief negative prints around local lows. These pockets came during early October, mid-November, and late November, showing where excess leverage was cleared. Funding moved back toward neutral after each event, showing a derivatives market that is balancing rather than overheating.
Exchange-level open interest data shows no stress on major venues. Binance leads with more than $11 billion in open interest, while MEXC, Bybit, and CME maintain strong activity. Volume concentration is steady across multiple platforms, with MEXC and Binance generating the most turnover. These trends support the idea of a market resetting rather than breaking down.
Spot Strength Builds Amid Corporate Wallet Activity
Bitcoin trades around $92,320 over the past day, supported by steady intraday buying. The chart shows a rapid recovery after a test of the $90,100 zone, where buyers absorbed the earlier dip. Price then formed a series of higher lows, supported by consistent trading volume throughout the session.
A separate development involved SpaceX moving about 1,021 BTC, valued near $94.5 million. The transfer was routed through Coinbase Prime, suggesting an internal treasury shift rather than open-market selling. Data indicates SpaceX-linked wallets still hold assets exceeding $368 million. These flows occurred as Bitcoin’s market cap reached $1.84 trillion, with circulating supply at 19.96 million BTC, reinforcing the asset’s scarcity-driven structure.
