- BTC hot capital surged by $21.5B in five weeks, signaling rising short-term speculation.
- Active address count stayed below 720K, lagging despite Bitcoin price near $95,000.
- 86% of the supply is now in profit, but network usage hasn’t followed capital inflows.
Short-term Bitcoin holder activity is surging, with speculative inflows hitting $39.1B on April 28, the highest since February. Glassnode data shows increased turnover by short-term holders as BTC trades near $95K, signaling renewed “hot capital” momentum.
Short-Term Holders Drive BTC Capital Turnover
The value of short-term transacted Bitcoin surged by more than 90% in just one week, increasing by $21.5 billion since March 23 lows. According to a post by Glassnode, this marks the largest influx of “hot capital” since early February, when BTC peaked near its previous cycle high. The increase includes coins moved by newer market entrants seeking gains amid rapidly shifting price conditions.
Glassnode defines hot capital as BTC moved within a rolling 24-hour to one-week window, capturing short-term investor behavior. These movements reflect heightened speculative positioning rather than long-term conviction, often seen during sharp price rallies. Capital turnover at this scale typically occurs when traders expect short-term profits and enter positions quickly.
Shifting liquidity patterns introduce additional considerations for institutional traders managing exposure in high-volatility cycles. As hot capital rises, short-term holders dominate flows, potentially increasing downside risks if momentum breaks. The surge suggests changing sentiment among newer investors responding to price rather than fundamentals.
Active Address Metrics Show Divergence
The recent Glassnode announcement notes that while capital movement has increased sharply, active addresses remain well below historical bull market norms. Active addresses—wallets sending or receiving BTC, stayed between 680,000 and 720,000 from January through late March, despite rising prices. This stagnation contrasts with prior bull cycles, where strong user activity supported price expansion.
Between October and December 2024, active addresses peaked near 890,000, aligning with BTC’s last major rally. Since then, address counts have declined even as prices rebounded to near $95,000, breaking from previous network usage patterns. The lack of broad participation raises questions about the rally’s organic strength.
Parallel trends are beginning to influence fund strategy as asset managers reevaluate engagement metrics alongside price movements. Without rising address counts, recent capital inflows appear more speculative and concentrated. This divergence challenges the sustainability of upward price action driven by a narrower user base.
On-Chain Indicators Reflect a Repricing Phase
Glassnode’s updated market data also points to increasing profitability, with 86% of supply now held in profit and NUPL rising to 0.53. These metrics reflect favorable investor positioning, yet user-level metrics, such as transfer volume and daily address growth, remain muted. This signals a gap between realized gains and new network demand.
Hot capital bottomed at $17.5 billion on March 23, the lowest since December 2023, before rebounding aggressively within five weeks. The return of $21.5 billion in that period indicates rising short-term conviction but not necessarily long-term accumulation. The shift represents a clear move from dormancy to speculative activity.
This new alignment alters the competitive landscape for directional traders relying on network data for confirmation. While on-chain profit signals are rising, broader adoption metrics lag behind. Glassnode’s data confirms that capital is moving quickly, but organic network growth is yet to catch up.
