- Starting late Q2 2025, whale activity has decreased, leaving retail traders more influence over short-term price movements in Bitcoin.
- The most recent BTC futures data is showing smaller average order sizes, suggesting that market activity is more from retail traders and not large institutional whales
- Bitcoin is approaching its previous all-time high, with current momentum driven by retail participation and minimal large-scale distribution from whales.
Bitcoin is approaching a critical breakout level as market dynamics show reduced whale activity and a rise in retail-driven trades.
Retail Orders Take a Larger Share of Market Activity
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, BTC futures markets have recently experienced a shift in trading composition. Data from @cryptoquant_com reveals that the average executed order size—calculated by dividing total traded volume by executed orders—has declined in recent weeks. This decline points to an increased share of smaller, retail-sized orders in overall activity.
ShayanBTC7 noted in a recent tweet that large yellow and green clusters in late 2024 and early 2025 reflected strong whale inflows. These inflows supported major bullish rallies during that period. In contrast, recent trading sessions have shown a growing presence of red clusters, a sign that retail traders are now more active participants.
Decline in Whale-Driven Market Influence
Since late Q2 2025, whale involvement in the Bitcoin market has decreased. Larger players appear to be holding positions from earlier accumulation phases or waiting for more favorable re-entry levels. The absence of aggressive whale selling suggests that institutional participants may not be distributing holdings at current prices.
Historical trends indicate that prolonged whale dominance has often coincided with market tops and distribution phases. The current decline in whale activity changes the market landscape, leaving more room for retail-driven momentum to influence short-term price direction.
Breakout Potential and Market Outlook
Bitcoin is currently floating at its previous all-time high, and the technicals indicate that they are in a position to break to the upside. If retail momentum can stay elevated without significant whale distribution, it could easily move through some key resistance zones in the coming weeks.
However, renewed whale activity could alter this setup. Large-scale selling from institutional players might trigger a distribution phase, slowing or reversing upward momentum. For now, the prevailing conditions point to a market more heavily influenced by retail participation, setting the stage for potentially decisive price action.
Data from CryptoQuant continues to monitor this shift, offering insight into whether current market drivers can sustain BTC’s push toward new highs.
