- Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross fell to -2.8 on July 18, a level that typically precedes strong upward movement in price.
- The NVT model compares market cap with on-chain volume and suggests BTC may be undervalued relative to blockchain activity.
- This week’s macroeconomic data may influence Bitcoin’s movement as the technical setup aligns with historical recovery signals.
Bitcoin may be trading below its actual value, according to recent readings from the NVT Golden Cross indicator.
NVT Golden Cross Suggests Undervalued Market
On July 18, the NVT Golden Cross indicator dropped to -2.8, one of its lowest levels in recent months. This metric evaluates Bitcoin’s valuation by comparing its market cap to on-chain transaction volume. When the value falls below -1.6, it typically points to an undervalued market.
The indicator is currently in negative territory, as reported by Darkfost_Coc on X. A reading of -2.8 suggests that Bitcoin’s price is trailing its on-chain activity. Historically, such low levels are often followed by upward price corrections, especially when broader market factors align.
According to the NVT model, a negative reading reflects suppressed market cap growth compared to transactional utility. These moments frequently coincide with market bottoms and can precede rallies.
Market Conditions Show Potential for Reversion
The NVT Golden Cross is used by analysts to assess potential price reversals. When the value crosses certain thresholds, it tends to indicate that market sentiment may not align with fundamental blockchain activity.
Bitcoin’s current reading remains well below the neutral zone, suggesting that the asset could be poised for a price adjustment. A return to the mean is often expected in similar historical setups, particularly when prices diverge from real usage metrics.
This pattern has previously marked transition phases between bearish and bullish cycles. It reflects changing demand, trading behavior, and underlying network usage — all critical signals for longer-term valuation trends.
Macro Data May Influence Short-Term Market Movement
While the NVT Golden Cross reading remains low, broader economic events may influence Bitcoin’s immediate direction. The tweet from @Darkfost_Coc notes that this week’s macroeconomic data could be a deciding factor.
Investors are likely monitoring these figures closely, especially as sentiment remains uncertain across traditional and crypto markets. Any favorable developments could support a rebound in price, confirming the current undervaluation indicated by the NVT model.
Until then, the technical reading serves as a possible early signal of a shift in Bitcoin’s market position.
