- Bitcoin hits $108K, but BCMI divergence warns of weak investor sentiment and thinning capital behind the price rally.
- Whale adds 8K BTC worth $849M at $106K, signaling deep conviction even as broader sentiment metrics show fading momentum.
- Leverage ratios spike as long positions crowd in, raising the risk of sharp corrections if support levels give way.
Bitcoin is pushing fresh all-time highs near $108K, but key on-chain indicators are flashing caution. While price action remains bullish, sentiment metrics suggest the rally may lack full conviction, raising questions about sustainability.
Bitcoin’s combined market sentiment is showing signs of decoupling from its price trajectory. According to a post by CryptoQuant.com, the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which integrates price movement with multi-timeframe sentiment, shows its 7-day moving average declining even as BTC surges past $ 100 K. Historically, such divergences mark early accumulation phases but can also indicate fading capital inflows behind strong price action.
From 2018 through 2020, the BCMI hovered in the bearish 0.1–0.4 range, aligning with BTC’s sub-$15K levels. Sentiment rose with price through 2021, peaking at 0.8 during the bull cycle before collapsing again in 2022. After a 2023 recovery, BTC tested $69K three times before breaking out in 2025. However, current BCMI readings near the 0.5 median, despite record highs, point to reduced investor participation.
Valuation Bands Define Topside Risk Range
BTC is now trading within a historically critical valuation corridor—between the MVRV +0.5σ and +1.0σ deviation bands, set at $100.2K and $119.4K, respectively. According to Kyledoops, breaking above the +1.0σ level has consistently marked macro market tops in prior cycles. For now, BTC sits just under that threshold, indicating a “warm” market with more room, unless profit-taking accelerates.
These deviation bands measure volatility around Bitcoin’s realized price, currently near $ 30 K. Price reversal zones across past cycles occurred at the outer bands, euphoria at +1.0σ, and accumulation at 1.0σ. The upward slope of the realized price confirms long-term profitability, but also highlights elevated short-term risk for new entrants near the upper valuation extremes.
Whale Activity Signals Long-Term Bitcoin Confidence
A high-profile whale wallet has drawn attention after accumulating 8,000 BTC, worth approximately $849.26 million. Tracked via Arkham and flagged by Justin Wu, the address holds only Bitcoin—no stablecoins or altcoins—suggesting an all-in strategy based on conviction and patience. The acquisition price averaged $106,157 per coin, reflecting institutional-level confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Arkham’s dashboard identifies the wallet as one of the largest non-custodial Bitcoin holders active today. Despite a minor -1.04% dip in 24-hour portfolio value, the whale’s exposure remains fully intact. This unwavering stance contrasts with mixed short-term sentiment indicators, particularly the weakening Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Index (BCMI).
Leverage Surges as Technicals Flash Mixed Signals
As whales accumulate, derivatives data reveals growing speculative pressure from retail and leveraged accounts. Analyst BATMAN noted a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s long/short account ratio, reaching 1.261, the highest since the $90K reclaim. Historically, similar surges have led to short-term corrections due to crowded long positioning.
Technical analysis from Coinalyze adds complexity, with five rounded bottoms forming since early May, each leading to bullish breakouts. The latest pattern, near $106K, preceded a rally to $108,214.69, confirming momentum but raising caution. Diverging sentiment signals and CryptoQuant’s red-zone divergence highlight rising price against weakening conviction, suggesting potential structural fragility despite bullish surface strength.
